At the end of the third quarter, the S&P 500 Index had risen almost 60 percent since its low on March 9, 2009. A variety of indicators, including capital goods orders, vehicle and home sales have retreated from their downward trends and turned positive. In the wake of the recent credit meltdown, the contracting U.S. economy appears to have turned the corner. Or has it?
Without sounding too depressing a note, perhaps we shouldn’t be too quick to accept that the economy is completely out of the woods. Why? Three words: Commercial Real Estate.
According to Fortune magazine, real estate research firm, Foresight Analytics, estimates that banks should have booked losses on defaulted commercial real estate and construction loans to the tune of $110 billion. To date, they have only booked about one-third of those losses. This will put some of the smaller, regional and community banks (already ...